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Death head of the Russian secret services in the war

Death head of the GRU confused maps of Russian secret services in the war
January 7, 2016 Views: 16583

Stratfor: Death head of the GRU confused maps of Russian secret services in the war
The sudden death of the chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Russia Igor Sergunov shrouded in mystery, says Stratfor. It was one of the most influential people in the Russian law enforcement bodies, but always remained in the shadows.

After taking office in the midst of conflict with his department's Foreign Intelligence Service and the Federal Security Service, he managed to unite the GRU and defend his position, the magazine writes. Also responsible for the failure to anticipate the outcome of the unrest in the Ukraine and the overthrow Viktor Yanukovych fell on the FSB and GRU, according to Stratfor, gained greater powers to intelligence activities in Ukraine.

All 2014 and 2015, these two departments were fighting for the Ukrainian direction, and as the author writes, it was evident in how the leaders of the militia took turns in the Donbas. Problems with the FSB were on the domestic scene, from control over Chechnya to Putin's disappearance in March 2015 and the murder of Boris Nemtsov. However, at the GRU had problems: for example, the publication writes that, according to the Ukrainian intelligence, the FSB recently returned to work in Ukraine.

Against this background, the return and sudden deaths GRU chief Igor Sergunov. Stratfor notes that it occurred under strange circumstances: the government claims that Sergun died January 4 in Moscow from a heart attack, but a source tells the publication, that it happened in the New Year in Lebanon. If the latter - though naturally the question arises: what Sergun did in Lebanon and why the Kremlin hides this fact?

Another question is whether the change is now Russia's policy towards Ukraine. The publication argues that Sergun was one of the authors of a hybrid strategy of war, but the FSB, in general, they can continue the begun business. But it is also unknown whether cope with the situation of the FSB and the Defense Ministry, if the position of the Russian military intelligence weaken.

It is not known whether the GRU preserve unity under the control of another leader. Russian media are already speculating on this topic, and there are rumors that the new chief of intelligence can become a non-military person associated with Putin. If that happens, it will mean that Putin will try to take control GRU and to secure additional protection.

In the near future, it is important to see whether the FSB will be able to benefit from changes in the GRU, which carries the death Sergunov. The Kremlin will also monitor the progress of the conflict, since it concerned the growth of discontent in the country before the parliamentary elections, but before these processes are controlled GRU. In addition to the presidential election in 2018 Putin is likely to be bothered by the struggle for power, especially if it will be on the sides in the conflict security services. And this struggle can be crucial for both Putin and Russia in the coming years, says Stratfor.

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